On 22 June 2018, the national team took the field to face Costa Rica in the group stage of the 2018 World Cup. The odds for a win were quoted at 1.22 at Bodog and this showed a huge favouritism. Costa Rica, on the other hand, were considered the underdogs of the game, with odds at 13.00. A draw offered odds of 6.00. In the end, won by 2-0 and put R$ 122 in the pocket of each bettor who had invested R$ 100 in the team’s victory.
But what are these odds and how do I know how much I can win in each bet through them? It is simpler than you think.
What are odds?
The odds are the probabilities within a given event, be it a football match, volleyball match, basketball match or even a horse race. They are calculated from the analysis made by the bookmakers and indicate the perspective of that duel. Let’s understand in practice how this works?
Country had odds of 1.22 to win against Costa Rica. This means that for each R$ 1.00 bet, there is a return of R$ 1.22 on the winning bet (R$ 1.00 which is the value of the bet + R$ 0.22 profit). To know what the real probability of victory was, let’s make the following calculation:
- 1/1.22 = 0,8196 x 100 = 81,96%
We divide the number 1 by the odds value, which is 1.22. We use the result to multiply by 100, and thus we find the percentage of chances of victory: 81.96%. See how simple it is?
As you can see, the probability of winning converting the odds into probabilities was almost 82%. Really, it was the big favorite to massacre Costa Rica in this game. But what was the chance of the Costa Ricans winning? Let’s make the same calculation, but with the odds of the opposing team.
- 1/13.00 = 0,0769 x 100 = 7,69%
Wow! The possibility of Costa Rica winning was really small, less than 8%. These odds with return of R$ 13.00 for R$ 1.00 is very tempting. Just imagine: invest $10 and get back $130! You have the possibility of a wonderful profit, but it is a high risk bet. It is very likely that the bet will not win. Could a bet on a draw be a good idea? Let’s calculate:
- 1/6.00 = 0,1666 x 100 = 16,66%
It seems that betting on a draw would be a better option than betting on Costa Rica. After all, the return would be R$6.00 to R$1.00, but at the same time the mathematical possibilities of a draw were around 16%. Still, the favouritism was all on the side. Although the odds were low, it seemed to be the most interesting option. After all, at the time the team was favored to win the World Cup. Remembering that the lower the odds, the higher the probability of victory.
Why doesn’t the account close?
If you made the sum of the odds of victory of Brazil, Costa Rica and the draw, you must have noticed that we passed 100%. That is, 81.96% +7.69% +16.66% equals 106.31%. But why is that? The answer is simple and you don’t need to do any other calculation to understand.
Every value that passes the 100% represents the margin – also called juice – of the bookmaker. That is, the commission they will receive. After all, it also needs to earn something for being doing the negotiations of our investments. In some houses, this value may be higher or lower, but usually it is between 3% and 6%. Pinnacle Sports is spatially known for its low juice, which increases the earnings of the bettors.
Types of Odds
Now that you understand what odds are, I will explain a little more about the ways they are presented in the bookmakers. It is something simple to understand. The format I have used in my example of the Brazil v Costa Rica match is decimal. Decimal odds are the most used and are the ones we use in all our predictions here.
The bookmakers usually offer all odds formats and you can choose within each site the desired configuration. What changes basically is the way the odds are calculated and the presentation. But regardless of the odds format, the profit you will have is always the same. Below, I explain which are the formats available.
Decimal Odds (1.22)
I confess that until today I have not made a single bet that was not in decimal format. This is an almost standard model chosen. When you open your account on a betting site like Bodog for example, it is very likely that you will automatically have the decimal format in your odds. It is the simplest by the way. The calculation to transform it into odds is the same we used in the example of the game between Brazil x Costa Rica.
- 1/1.22 = 0,8196 x 100 = 81,96%
To find out how much you will win on each bet in decimal format, simply multiply the odds by the value of the bet. Let’s simulate a R$10.00 bet to win and how much we would win if Costa Rica won or drew.